US relations and Cuba in the context of the new world order

Abstract

This article analyzes United States foreign policy and diplomacy toward Cuba from 1990 to the second term of President Barack Obama. It examines the processes through which the prolonged antagonism between both countries, lasting more than half a century, was reconsidered in order to move toward the normalization of relations. The study proposes the hypothesis that the new global order facilitated this bilateral shift, highlighting the economic rise and regional expansion of China as key factors. It also considers the role of Latin American and Caribbean countries, particularly those associated with the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA), in reshaping continental politics. Additionally, the article reflects on possible future scenarios for the nearly twelve million Cubans living on the island, taking into account essential aspects of the political system, deeply rooted in social culture and characterized by strong state control. An imminent transformation is identified, especially in terms of economic diversification driven by foreign investment and technological development. These changes may significantly impact political freedoms and civil rights, as well as the broader geopolitical integration of the region.